One more thing before getting into the meat of the article: it's important to remember that there are many reasons why people buy a box. As a result, don't expect these numbers to be good a month from now because they will be wrong, and likely very wrong. Even if the expected value is positive on release day, it won't be in a few weeks, because the supply of the cards from the set will increase, driving down prices. Second, we'll add in the Invention values and have a second expected value, which will apply more to people who plan on opening case after case to even out the variance.Īll in all, the question we are looking to answer is: Iis it worth it to crack a box based purely on the numbers? Basically, if I pay $100 for a box of Kaladesh, should I expect to get my money back, lose money, or come out a little bit ahead? Here, it's important to note that, over the long haul, it's never, ever worth it to crack a box. If you, like me, are just planning to crack a box or two, this number will be the most important, because most boxes will not contain a Masterpiece. As a result, instead of includeing the value of Masterpieces, we'll just treat Masterpieces as a free lotto ticket that comes with buying a box. First, we'll look at the expected value as if the possibility of opening an Invention did not exist. To solve this problem, I've decided to publish two different expected values. While this is fine for a vendor opening cases, variance will be a major concern for the average player who cracks a single box. The issue is that expected value works with averages, which means that the possibility of opening a Masterpiece Mana Crypt or Mana Vault will be evenly distributed thoughout all boxes, even though only about one in four boxes will actually contain a Masterpiece. ![]() ![]() In fact, the addition of the Masterpiece Series to all Standard legal sets nearly scared me away from doing an expected value article at all for Kaladesh. In the past, I've published these articles as soon as the entire set was spoiled, but with the addition of the Masterpiece Series to every set moving forward, it seems better to wait until closer to release day, because it's possible that sets will be overvalued during presales, thanks to the additional value of the very expensive (and very rare) Masterpiece Series cards. As I'm sure you probably know by now, for every new set, I like to publish an expected value article breaking down just how much value you can expect to open from a booster box.
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